Week of 09/11/21

Games played: usu 26-Washington state 23 (1-0)

Games to be played:
Vs North Dakota: 84.5% (2-0)
At Air Force: 42.4% (2-1)
Vs Boise: 25.7% (2-2)
Vs BYU: 18.8% (2-3)
At unlv: 58.7% (3-3)
Vs Colorado state: 64.5% (4-3)
Vs hawaii: 70.1% (5-3)
At New Mexico State: 85.8% (6-3)
At San Jose: 27.6% (6-4)
Vs Wyoming: 45.6% (6-5)
At New Mexico: 60.7% (7-5)

What say you guys? I could see us beating Wyoming and possibly beating Air Force as well. We also have a better than a 18.8 chance of beating BYU.

Week of 09/18/21

Games played: usu 26-Washington state 23 (1-0)
USU 48-North Dakota 24 (2-0)

Games to be played:
At Air Force: 50.1% (3-0) +7.7% from previous week
Vs Boise: 27.4% (3-1) +1.4% from previous week
Vs BYU: 27.9% (3-2) +9.1% from previous week
At unlv: 71.2% (4-2) +12.5% from previous week
Vs Colorado state: 79.2% (5-2) +14.7% from previous week
Vs hawaii: 79.5% (6-2) +9.4% from previous week
At New Mexico State: 88.0% (7-2) +2.2% from previous week
At San Jose: 42.2% (7-3) +14.6% from previous week
Vs Wyoming: 52.3% (8-3) +6.7% from previous week
At New Mexico: 75.9% (9-3) +15.2% from previous week

Overall +2 wins this week as both Wyoming and Air Force went over 50% (yes I know that isn't the correct way to calculate that )

Week of 09/25/21

Games Played: usu 26-Washington state 23 (1-0)
USU 48-North Dakota 24 (2-0)
USU 49-Air Force 45 (3-0) (Last week predicted a Usu win at 50.1%)

Games to be played:
Vs Boise: 33.4% (3-1) +6.0% from previous week
Vs BYU: 29.1% (3-2) +1.2% from previous week
At unlv: 80.8% (4-2) +9.6% from previous week
Vs Colorado state: 71.4% (5-2) -8.0% from previous week
Vs hawaii: 82.0% (6-2) +2.5% from previous week
At New Mexico State: 88.9% (7-2) +0.9% from previous week
At San Jose: 44.1% (7-3) +1.9% from previous week
Vs Wyoming: 45.0% (7-4) -7.3% from previous week
At New Mexico: 76.7% (8-4) +0.8% from previous week

Back 1 this week to 8-4. Wyoming's home win vs Ball State was apparently more impressive than our road win at Air Force.

Bowl!

Probably mostly fair although yeah a little low on the byu and Wyoming games.

Massey paints a little more blue colored glasses look.

I’m not understanding why ybu is a lower percentage than Bozo. Bozo looked better than ybu based off one game so far.

Slim80 wrote: ↑

September 5th, 2021, 2:23 pm

I’m not understanding why ybu is a lower percentage than Bozo. Bozo looked better than ybu based off one game so far.

I don't know, that Boise State defense looked pretty bad.

Didn't Wyoming just lose to an FCS team...?

trombone_ninja wrote: ↑

September 5th, 2021, 3:39 pm

Didn't Wyoming just lose to an FCS team...?

They won by 3. Offense was not good…again.

After watching the last two Aggie drives of the fourth quarter last night at WSU I don't think there is a game left on the schedule that isn't at winnable for this team. I'm NOT predicting we run the schedule, but I do think ESPN's estimates for USU's chances of winning for AFA, Boise, BYU, WY, and SJSU are way too low. I think we take *at least* three of those five - and could very well run the table on all the other games on the schedule.

Aggie Goggles very firmly in place!

Go Aggies.

JSHarvey wrote: ↑

September 5th, 2021, 3:48 pm

After watching the last two Aggie drives of the fourth quarter last night at WSU I don't think there is a game left on the schedule that isn't at winnable for this team. I'm NOT predicting we run the schedule, but I do think ESPN's estimates for USU's chances of winning for AFA, Boise, BYU, WY, and SJSU are way too low. I think we take *at least* three of those five - and could very well run the table on all the other games on the schedule.

Aggie Goggles very firmly in place!

Go Aggies.

Right now the only thing I care about is beating ND.

mcaggie1 wrote: ↑

September 5th, 2021, 3:58 pm

JSHarvey wrote: ↑

September 5th, 2021, 3:48 pm

After watching the last two Aggie drives of the fourth quarter last night at WSU I don't think there is a game left on the schedule that isn't at winnable for this team. I'm NOT predicting we run the schedule, but I do think ESPN's estimates for USU's chances of winning for AFA, Boise, BYU, WY, and SJSU are way too low. I think we take *at least* three of those five - and could very well run the table on all the other games on the schedule.

Aggie Goggles very firmly in place!

Go Aggies.

Right now the only thing I care about is beating ND.

Good point, but my estimations of what this team might be capable of got a big boost last night.

I would think UNLV would be one of our more winnable games but neither of those indicators would reflect that. In my mind, @ UNM will be more difficult than @UNLV but maybe I’m overlooking the Rebs

Based off the evidence we've seen so far I don't see how the Aggies lose to the following teams, barring a complete collapse or injuries: New Mexico, NMSU, Wyoming, Colorado State, UNLV, North Dakota

The other games are probably in the 35-45 percent probability range for me, ranked from most likely win to least likely:

1) Air Force
2) BYU
3) San Jose
4) Boise

Colorado State will be better than they showed Friday.

It was just one game. The tide can turn so easily. North Dakota is a solid team and if this weekend showed us anything that the FCS teams came ready to play. I know the team won't overlook ND, but I just hope the same focus is there this week to care of business.

slcagg wrote: ↑

September 5th, 2021, 3:41 pm

trombone_ninja wrote: ↑

September 5th, 2021, 3:39 pm

Didn't Wyoming just lose to an FCS team...?

They won by 3. Offense was not good…again.

Thanks, I saw a score where Wyoming was behind and must've thought it was the final score

Either way, I think by the end of the night we're putting Bridger's rifle back in it's display case in the NEZ

Coloraggie wrote: ↑

September 5th, 2021, 6:20 pm

Colorado State will be better than they showed Friday.

What on earth makes you think that?
Addazio is like Andersen. He’s a total disaster.

I think washington state wins 1 game this year. They are not a good team at all. Great win though!

slcagg wrote: ↑

September 5th, 2021, 3:41 pm

trombone_ninja wrote: ↑

September 5th, 2021, 3:39 pm

Didn't Wyoming just lose to an FCS team...?

They won by 3. Offense was not good…again.

The Wyoming offense is rarely good.

Coloraggie wrote: ↑

September 5th, 2021, 6:20 pm

Colorado State will be better than they showed Friday.

I'll be surprised if that's true.

aggies22 wrote:

Coloraggie wrote: ↑

September 5th, 2021, 6:20 pm

Colorado State will be better than they showed Friday.

I'll be surprised if that's true.

They won't be worse than they showed


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I always wait a few weeks before I really decide what a team is going to be. I’m excited about our win, but it is only week one. A lot will change next week. Teams will deal with injuries. Mistakes will be remedied. It will be interesting to see where we go from here. There is a lot to improve.

It’s important to recognize that Washington State may only win 2 games the entire season.

In 2019, Nevada beat Purdue on a last second field goal in a season opener.

I think we beat that Nevada team quite badly.

It is nice to get that P5 monkey of our back, but it doesn’t necessarily indicate this season will be special.

LarryTheAggie wrote: ↑

September 5th, 2021, 5:20 pm

rAggie wrote: ↑

September 5th, 2021, 5:02 pm

Based off the evidence we've seen so far I don't see how the Aggies lose to the following teams, barring a complete collapse or injuries: New Mexico, NMSU, Wyoming, Colorado State, UNLV, North Dakota

The other games are probably in the 35-45 percent probability range for me, ranked from most likely win to least likely:

1) Air Force
2) BYU
3) San Jose
4) Boise

Classic week one overreaction.

I really think North Dakota could have beat wsu.

This is a good post. I would agree with you. The difference is that it's not a road game and for a team with so many transfers and a new coaching staff and a fan base that isn't too well established the home vs road game point differential has to be 7 points minimum.

LarryTheAggie wrote: ↑

September 5th, 2021, 5:20 pm

rAggie wrote: ↑

September 5th, 2021, 5:02 pm

Based off the evidence we've seen so far I don't see how the Aggies lose to the following teams, barring a complete collapse or injuries: New Mexico, NMSU, Wyoming, Colorado State, UNLV, North Dakota

The other games are probably in the 35-45 percent probability range for me, ranked from most likely win to least likely:

1) Air Force
2) BYU
3) San Jose
4) Boise

Classic week one overreaction.

I really think North Dakota could have beat wsu.

I don't think it's an overreaction to say we CAN win any of those games. He is still below 50 percent which is saying we WONT. I will say though, we WONT win any of those games if we keep kicking field goals in the redzone, especially since BYU is more capable of blocking field goal attempts denying us even that in our redzone trips.

ineptimusprime wrote: ↑

September 6th, 2021, 9:29 am

In 2019, Nevada beat Purdue on a last second field goal in a season opener.

I think we beat that Nevada team quite badly.

It is nice to get that P5 monkey of our back, but it doesn’t necessarily indicate this season will be special.

But Nevada did still have a 7-6 season, something we at least would have taken during the summer.

Thought I would update. We flipped a couple in our favor due to our good performance and opponents not so good. Still big underdogs to the:
Broncs
Cougs
Spartys

But if we go into Boise game 3-0 look for it to be closer to 50% chance same for BYU we beat Boise we go into that game 4-0 at home we be 50%.

slcagg wrote:Games played: usu 26-Washington state 23 (1-0)

Games to be played:
Vs North Dakota: 88.4% (2-0)
At Air Force: 51.5% (3-0)
Vs Boise: 33.4% (3-1)
Vs BYU: 28.3% (3-2)
At unlv: 67.2% (4-2)
Vs Colorado state: 72.4% (5-2)
Vs hawaii: 75.7% (6-2)
At New Mexico State: 87.1% (7-2)
At San Jose: 35.7% (7-3)
Vs Wyoming: 54.9% (8-3)
At New Mexico: 69.0% (9-3)

What say you guys? I could see us beating Wyoming and possibly beating Air Force as well. We also have a better than a 18.8 chance of beating BYU.

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GameFAQSAggie wrote: ↑

September 6th, 2021, 11:17 am

ineptimusprime wrote: ↑

September 6th, 2021, 9:29 am

In 2019, Nevada beat Purdue on a last second field goal in a season opener.

I think we beat that Nevada team quite badly.

It is nice to get that P5 monkey of our back, but it doesn’t necessarily indicate this season will be special.

But Nevada did still have a 7-6 season, something we at least would have taken during the summer.

Yep and that is what the win meant. No sane person thinks we are going undefeated because we beat a bottom of the Pac 12 team by 3. It did show we are capable of having a winning season with our schedule.

usu99 wrote: ↑

September 5th, 2021, 8:53 pm

I think washington state wins 1 game this year. They are not a good team at all. Great win though!

At this point in time they have potential wins against PSU, Oregon State, California, The sh!t TDS, Arizona and even Washington.

A lot of football to play.

I'm not convinced BYU is really that great. It'll still be a tough game, and an upset if we win, but is beating Arizona in Vegas that much better than beating Washington State on the road?

3rdGenAggie wrote: ↑

September 7th, 2021, 11:53 am

I'm not convinced BYU is really that great. It'll still be a tough game, and an upset if we win, but is beating Arizona in Vegas that much better than beating Washington State on the road?

When was the last time Arizona won a game?

3rdGenAggie wrote: ↑

September 7th, 2021, 11:53 am

I'm not convinced BYU is really that great. It'll still be a tough game, and an upset if we win, but is beating Arizona in Vegas that much better than beating Washington State on the road?

Sagarin would argue that point with you.